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Mobile gaming in Japan: A different world



From time to time I like to drop in on What Japan Thinks, a website
that translates into English an enormous number of market research
studies conducted in Japan.  That's where I recently came across an
astonishing survey conducted earlier this year on mobile game use in
Japan.In the US, game-playing on mobile phones is seen as a fairly
popular activity, and I think the view in Europe is similar.  But
neither place holds a candle to Japan, if you can believe the survey. 
Here are some highlights:More than 90% of the people surveyed play
video games.  That seems like an incredibly high figure, but the
survey was conducted by InfoPlant, a reputable Japanese market
research firm. The survey base was supposedly users of DoCoMo mobile
phones, which sounds a little unconventional but is a fairly
representative sample of the overall Japanese population.  It's better
than surveying PC useres, which is what's typically done in the US. 
PC usage rates are a lot lower in Japan than in the US, so surveying
via mobile phone actually reaches a greater share of the
population.It's surprisingly hard to find directly comparable
game-playing statistics for other countries, but the reports I could
find implied lower levels of activity:--A report from the
Entertainment Software Association , a trade group, claims that 69% of
US "heads of households" play video games.--Back when I was at Palm,
we had access to Forrester Research's excellent consumer tracking
surveys.  At that time (a couple of years ago), they said 32% of US
households had videogame consoles, and 24% had handheld game
systems.--At Palm we also did our own surveys of consumer interest in
mobile gaming.  We found that about 13% of the population in the US
and Europe were mobile entertainment enthusiasts -- people who were
willing to pay extra to have an entertainment device with them when
they were on the go.  We never ran the survey in Japan, and now I wish
we had.The InfoPlant survey figure appears to indicate that there's a
much higher percentage of gaming enthusiasts in Japan than we have in
the US and Europe.  That fits the stereotype of gaming in Japan, but I
always question stereotypes like that unless they've been tested
objectively.At least three-quarters of the people surveyed play games
on mobile devices.  Mobile phones are the devices most often used for
game-playing, but about half of the respondents said they also own a
dedicated mobile gaming device like a Gameboy (about double the
ownership rate Forrester found in the US).  Half of those users, a
quarter of the Japanese population, said they use their game devices
frequently.Here's the breakdown of gaming device usage by sex (numbers
total to more than 100 because many people play games on more than one
type of device).  Game usage on mobile phones and portables was a
little more popular among women, while console gaming was more popular
among men.On what kind of machine do you usually play games?Women
prefer Nintendo.  There are some interesting differences between men
and women in what brand of mobile gaming device they use.   The women
were a bit more likely to use Nintendo products, while the men were
more likley to have Sony PSPs.Select all the portable game machines
you own.In case you're wondering what a Wonder Swan  is, it's a mobile
game system sold by Bandai in Japan.Most people use mobile game
devices at home, not in transit.  This is a great example of why I
distrust stereotypes.  The stereotype of Japanese mobile gaming is
that most people would do it on trains, while they slog through their
commutes on those endless subways beneath Tokyo.The survey confirmed
that some people genuinely do use mobile games in transit, but the
most common usage of a mobile game platform is at home.  I guess the
pattern would be to come home, stretch out on the futon, and play a
little Pokemon:Where do you usually play on your mobile device?I wish
we knew more about why people would use a mobile game system so
heavily at home.  Is the TV being used for other purposes?  Or in a
relatively small Japanese home, does the portable game system just fit
in better?Old folks dig the DS.  The greatest surprise to me was a
finding that Nintendo DS ownership is vastly higher among older people
than young people.  The chart below shows the percent of people in
each age group who own Nintendo DS systems:Percent of respondents in
each age group who own a DS:What Japan Thinks attributes this to Brain
Age and other "brain training" games  for the DS that are supposed to
protect against mental decline as you age.  Apparently this is driving
vast usage of the DS by older Japanese people.It's a fascinating
difference from the US, where the DS is generally seen as a kids
device, at least for now.What it all meansAs I noted earlier, without
knowing more about the study's methodology, it's hard to say how much
we should trust it.  But even if some of the numbers are off by a bit,
I think they teach a couple of good lessons:Convergence doesn't
necessarily destroy specialized products.  Mobile gaming is heavily
deployed on Japanese mobile phones, and yet standalone mobile game
devices continue to sell well.  Why?  I think it's because the mobile
consoles do things that the game-equipped phones can't.  Convergence
kills markets only when the converged product is a complete and
affordable replacement for the dedicated one.  That's very important
to keep in mind when you read the forecasts saying things like,
"cameraphones will destroy sales of digital cameras."  That will
happen only to the extent that cameraphones have all the same features
as standalone digital cameras.  If the camera vendors keep innovating,
I think they can survive indefinitely.Don't assume a market's
boundaries are fixed.  The standard assumption in the industry has
been that mobile gaming is primarily a kids and young adults thing,
with GameBoy + Pokemon being the prototypical example.  Even the PSP,
which shoots for a more mature audience than GameBoy, is still aimed
at hardcore gamers.  But Nintendo has been very up-front about aiming
both the DS and the new Wii console at mainstream adults.  That
strategy has apparently been very successful for the DS in Japan, and
you can read an update on Nintendo's Wii marketing plan, targeting
soccer moms, here.(I first started believing that Nintendo's Wii
strategy might work when my wife abruptly told me she wanted one for
this Christmas.  She said it's a great way to get exercise if you
don't want to go through the hassle of traveling to a tennis court. 
About half of her friends agree and also want Wiis.  This from women
who have never shown serious interest in a game console before, and
who barely even know what an Xbox is.  Remarkable.)It's very common
for tech companies to assume that the people who make up a market
today will always be the core of the market in the future.  But that's
like driving a car by staring at the rear-view mirror; you can only
see where you've been.Looking ahead and growing a market is a lot
harder to do, but it's one of the most effective ways to fight a
larger competitor who's invading your turf.  If the other guy has a
volume or resource advantage, the worst thing you can do is stand
still and let them spend you into the ground.  Change the rules of the
competition by innovating in unpredictable ways, or by growing the
market in a new direction.  That turns the biggest advantage of a
large corporation, its scale, into a disadvantage.  The larger a
company is, the slower it reacts, and the more its internal politics
will interfere.  If you change the rules frequently enough, the big
guys will never be able to get their cannons fully aimed at you.That's
what Nintendo is doing in its fight with Microsoft and Sony.  There's
no guarantee it'll work, but I admire Nintendo's vision and courage.





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Hollywood's view of the Web: Through a glass, strangely



The LA Times is a wonderful place to watch the entertainment industry
try to figure out the Internet.  Some issues that aren't a big deal in
Silicon Valley fascinate them endlessly, while other things that
Silicon Valley thinks are important are completely ignored.A great
example of this process is the newspaper's recap of 2006 on the Web,
"Ten moments the web shook the world."   "This was the year wishful
thinking -- that this Internet phenomenon might just go away --
evaporated, and those media companies still standing began to seek
anything that might see them through the deluge."So what made up the
deluge, according to the Times?  Some highlights:Snakes on a Plane is
described as the first time that the Web took control of the
production of a movie.  Most folks in the blogosphere viewed Snakes as
a cool example of participatory marketing, but if you view it through
the eyes of a Hollywood producer, it's a threat to power.LonelyGirl15.
 This mysterious personality on MySpace was the subject of endless
coverage and speculation in the Times throughout the summer.  They
analyzed it with the same intensity that many websites reserved for
Britney Spears' underwear.  I think the idea of someone using the Web
to launch an acting career blew their minds.The rise of celebrity
websites.  The Times viewed this as the year in which
celebrity-focused websites first started to drive (read: debase) the
standards of what constitutes a celebrity.  People like Paris Hilton
(and our gal Britney) proved to be willing to do just about anything
to get a little online attention.The common theme in all of these
cases is the loss of power by parts of the traditional entertainment
industry: producers, agents, and journalists.  For years the Web has
been eating away at power structures in lots of industries, but this
was apparently the year in which Hollywood first really felt the
impact.The Times asks:  "As traditional media interact with new media
and vice versa, whose values will infect whom? Will old media arrive
like the cavalry on the scene, Good Book in hand, to lift up the Web
rabble with the promise of Bedrock Standards and High Production
Values? Or when the drawbridge is lowered just a little bit, will the
masses simply storm the castle and repaint it electric blue and
pink?"That's easy to answer. I heard the same questions almost 20
years ago when desktop publishing started to challenge the printing
industry.  The answer is that you'll get both -- the high-standard
material will coexist side by side with amateur hour.  People will
prove to be very accepting of poor production values if the material
is compelling in some other way (YouTube already demonstrates this,
where we cheerfully watch video of such poor quality that you'd call
the cable company and complain if it came over your TV).There will
always be a market for the best productions, but in the future I think
it'll be much harder to get away with charging high-quality production
prices for shows or movies that aren't truly entertaining, because
people will have a cheap alternative.  The threat isn't to HBO, it's
to the CW.





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Understanding Palm: What Ed Colligan really said



I sympathize with reporters sometimes.  If you attend an event, you're
expected to write about it -- even if there isn't any news.  That's
what I think happened a few weeks ago when Palm CEO Ed Colligan did a
breakfast Q&A for the Churchill Club, a local discussion forum here in
Silicon Valley.About 50 people attended, and while Colligan said some
interesting things, an informal breakfast talk is not the sort of
place where you deliver major news.  But two reporters from the San
Jose Mercury News were there, and they had to write about something. 
So they picked on Colligan's answer to a question about competition
from Apple and others entering the mobile phone market.  He pointed
out that it's hard to make a successful phone product.Unfortunately,
there's no effective way to answer one of those theoretical
competitive question when reporters are in the room.  If you say,
"we're very worried about the new competitors," the headlines will
scream, "Palm CEO says company is doomed."  If you say you're not
concerned, the story will be, "Palm CEO overconfident."  I've been
there.  You can't win.Sure enough, the Mercury-News headline read, "An
Apple phone? Palm CEO says, 'What, me worry?'"Then, of course, the
culture of Internet outrage ran with the story.  The high-visibility
Mac weblog Daring Fireball (#345 on Technorati's worldwide list)
headlined its commentary, "Palm CEO Ed Colligan’s Head Seems to
be Stuck Somewhere."  No need to read the article; you can tell what
it's going to say just from the headline.There were three ironic
things about all of this:1.  The question didn't actually focus on
Apple.  Colligan was asked about all of the new competitors who might
be entering the market: Apple, Google talking about free phones and
hiring Andy Rubin of Danger, and so on.  "The phone market could look
intensely crowded."Colligan's response:  "It's also intensely big, we
just have to get our fair share."  "Let me tell you this, it's not as
easy as it looks."  He cited the Motorola Q as an example -- it was
supposed to take over the world but didn't.  "I just would caution
people that think they're going to walk in here and do these.... I
don't think it'll be so easy as everybody thinks.  It's a tough
space...I'm not trying to be cocky about it.  It is a tough business. 
We've really struggled through that."  "We struggled for years
figuring out how to make a decent phone."  He said making world-class
radios that work consistently on world networks with all the right
applications is very hard.I thought that was a pretty nuanced, honest
answer to the question.  He didn't sound dismissive to me; he was just
pointing out that it's hard to make a phone.  He's right that until
you've lived through the process of producing a phone, you have no
idea how many little decisions have to be made, how many things can go
wrong, and how many tweaky little features the operators will make you
add.  Although you might think phone features are standardized, in
reality they often require all sorts of small customizations for every
operator.  That's incredibly expensive to do, the process is hard to
learn, and if you fail on even a couple of small things the operator
may refuse to sell your phone.  It's several times more complex than
creating a PC, and I believe no company can easily ace all of that
stuff on the first try.2. Even if that had been the question, it was
the wrong question.  The Treo is an e-mail phone for people who want
business productivity.  If Apple's making an iPhone, it'll be a music
phone for people who want entertainment.  Those are completely
different markets.  If you think there's a huge competitive overlap
between them then you've got your head stuck someplace.  (Colligan
didn't say that, but I wish he had.)3. The competitive comment was not
the most interesting part of the talk.  Not even close, in my
opinion.If you want to hear the whole speech, you can listen to it
here.  Or if you want to save an hour of MP3 time, below is my summary
of what I heard, with some color on what I think it means.  (Most of
what follows is paraphrased.  The text in quotes is pretty close to
what he said, but I probably missed a few words here and there.  My
comments are in italics.)My nomination for Colligan's most important
quote.  "We're not in the handset business, we're in the mobile
computing business....Voice is a killer app of the future of mobile
computing.  That's how we look at the world."  Think about that for a
while.  It's not as newsy as an imaginary cheap shot at Apple, but
that quote says everything you really need to know about Palm: Mobile
computing first, voice telephony second, and if you don't want that
you should buy something else.  I can tell you from personal
experience that's how most of the folks at Palm really
think.Technologies and trendsEric Schmidt of Google says that in the
future cell phones will be free and ad-supported.  Do you believe it? 
"Everything in the world looks like an ad" to Eric because he's in the
business of selling ads.  Google sees a phone as a great way to target
ads, but the phone is one of the few private spaces left.  People may
resist intrusions there.  The ads will have to be incredibly creative
in order to be accepted.Colligan then branched to a discussion of
Google Maps on the Treo, which he says is a great application.  He
wants to use it to look up nearby pizza restaurants and then phone an
order to one of them automatically.  He was very enthusiastic about
this sort of functionality.On voice over IP.  People don't want to
give up the ability to use the phone anywhere.  He's skeptical that
there will be enough coverage to make WiFi phones a replacement for
cellular anytime soon.  "Maybe on college campuses."  Mesh networks
will take a long time to deploy.What's the market for video on
mobiles?  Short clips, a la carte selection.  I agree.  I can picture
people watching short YouTube-style content on a mobile a lot more
readily than a half-hour TV show.  It's bon-bons, not a full meal. 
Mobile games are the same way -- quick reward, nothing too involved. 
That's why Bejeweled has been so successful.On 3G.  He loves EVDO. 
It's very fast.  Less enthusiastic about UMTS – it's more of an
incremental bump in performance, but there are latency problems.  You
need HSDPA to get reasonable performance.About the iPhone.  The rumor
mill says that Apple will produce an unlocked GSM/GPRS phone sold at
retail, so users can buy phone service separately and slip their SIM
card into the phone.  Colligan said he thought that would be very
difficult to sell, that the only approach in the US if you don't want
to sell through the operators is to focus on WiFi only.  Did he have
some inside information on what Apple's doing?  Was he trying to seed
some skepticism about Apple's product?  Was he talking about what a
non-operator Palm product would be like?  Or was he just trying to
answer honestly?  I don't know.On the Motorola Q.  (The general tone
of rumors around the mobile industry is that the Q is a failure, with
low sell-through and lots of returns.  Colligan did nothing to
contradict those rumors.)  Integrating a whole mobile computer and OS
is difficult.  Also, it's nice to make a thin product, but not if you
make the battery so small that the device can't get through a day's
use.  It's hard to balance all the features and user experience and
get them all right.  "I think they got some of those things wrong."Are
we in another tech bubble?  Things are exuberant, but not irrationally
so.  There's not too much excess yet.  But there is too much money
chasing too few ideas.  "I look at the traffic patterns" on Bay Area
freeways, and traffic has been getting worse.  That means the economy
is heating up.About the operatorsOn mobile phone subsidies paid by the
operators.  He wishes subsidies would go away.  He would prefer to
sell through retail rather than through operators.  "I love retail. 
We have a huge retail presence.  We'd love to have the retailers have
more power."  He wants to compete head to head with other device
companies without the operators saying what features to put on the
device.But on the other hand, he said, the operators spend a lot of
money advertising your products, which is a good thing.European vs. US
operators.  Coverage is better in Europe.  "In Europe, nobody says,
'how many bars do you have?'"  In Europe there's one mobile
technology, and more operators.  The US is split between two phone
technologies, and has fewer operators.Will the operators lose control
over the market?  "The sentry breaks down over time."  I thought that
was a nice zen-like way of saying "yes." He avoided a Mercury-News
headline screaming "Palm says carriers are doomed," which would not
have helped him sell Treos.He went on to contrast the PC model (open
gardens) vs. the videogame platform model (apps controlled by the
vendor).  Who's to say which one will do better in phones long term,
he asked.Working with MicrosoftAbout Microsoft.  Windows Mobile is
"becoming a bigger and bigger part of our business."  They are very
good launch partners.  "They are great the day you come out...beyond
my wildest dreams."  (He implied that Microsoft is a lot less helpful
after you've launched.)  The relationship has been difficult to
develop because Palm actually partners with Microsoft at an
engineering level, which most Microsoft customers don't do.Do you
worry about Microsoft being a monopolist in phones?  "No.  Not in this
space.  There are so many countervailing forces that they'll never get
to that position."Is Palm OS easier to use than Windows Mobile?  "I
think David Pogue is right" that Palm OS is easier.  But it's a matter
of customer choice; some people like the Start button.  He wants to
create a situation where a Windows user chooses the OS platform he
wants, looks for the best device on that platform, and finds that
"Palm makes the best Windows product."On Palm and its futureFuture
Treo products.  Palm is working on products that will combine WiFi and
cellular.  "Stay tuned."  I took that to mean a Treo with WiFi built
in.  I hope the operators will be willing to sell it.Beyond
smartphones.  "Are there are other segments of the market that we
could go after with new designs and new form factors and are we going
to do that?  Sure.  Absolutely.""We're a mobile computing company...so
you can expect us to do more products...that leverage the fact that
every one of you is going to have a broadband modem in your pocket
which is instantly accessible to the Internet and the outside world. 
We think that's a pretty cool thing and we're working on products that
take advantage of that.""They (users) have a high-speed
connection...to their pocket...Boy, is there things we can deliver to
them, and is there compelling experiences that we can deliver to them,
that are going to help us differentiate our products?  I think there
are, and we're working on things like that." Same vague hints that
Palm has been giving for a year: Broadband modem, lots of local
storage, think what we could do for that.  What I think I'm hearing
is:  A mobile product with WiFi, which Palm pairs with Web services
that deliver content and do other things for the user. I wish I knew
what those things are -- that'll be the interesting part.Do Palm PDAs
(no phone built in) have a future?  It's been shrinking, because we've
been cannibalizing it with the Treo.  But it's still a $300 million
business.  My translation: We'll keep offering them as long as people
buy.  But we're not putting a lot of energy into them.On the
LifeDrive:  "Too big, too late to the game" compared to iPod.  Wow, if
they expected that thing to compete with the iPod, they were even more
naive than I thought.  They didn't have the iTunes-like service, and
they tried to be all things to all people.  I hoped they learned the
right lessons for their next generation products.Is Linux in Palm's
future?  We look at Linux as being an interesting community to
leverage.  (He then branched to a discussion of Palm OS.)  There are a
lot of users who have loyalty to Palm OS and love it.  "We want to
take the Palm OS forward."  That little quote makes a lot more sense
now that we know he was in the process of buying rights to Palm OS
Garnet.  But what does he mean by leveraging the Linux community?Is
Palm for sale?  Companies don't get sold, they get bought.  We're
trying to execute against a brand, to build a great brand.  I think
the implication was: 'we're not trying actively to sell ourselves, but
we're publicly traded and would have to listen if somebody offered a
bunch of money over the market price.'  I have heard companies be a
lot more vehement about "we're not for sale."  So I'd call this a
non-denial denial.  Or maybe he was just trying to be polite.Required
reading for Palm executives.  Colligan is having the Palm executive
team read the book "From Good to Great" because it focuses on
execution and is very practical.  "What we need to do better is
disciplined execution."  (Shortly after his talk, Palm announced that
it would have an earnings shortfall because a product was coming to
market late.  So you can understand why he's focused on execution.)
That's it.  Nothing revolutionary, but I think it does help you
understand the company.  Like it or hate it, they really don't see
themselves as a mobile phone company.  They are a mobile computing
company, and telephony is just a part of mobile computing.  A lot of
my phone-centric friends in Europe are going to throw up all over that
idea, but I kind of respect it.  I think Palm is not big enough to win
as a mobile phone company, but as a mobile computing company it's a
world leader.  The question is whether they can develop mobile
computing into something distinct enough to stand as its own category.
 The jury's still out on that.  I think a lot will depend on what they
release in 2007.  If they can establish a new product line beyond
phones, they'll have a much better chance.  If they can't...well,
we'll find out how patient their investors are. 





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Will flat-rate pricing make mobile data take off?



No.  It's a nice start, but the operators need to take several other
steps as well.Recently flat-rate pricing for wireless data service has
become a big issue in Europe and some other parts of the world.  Data
service to mobile phones there has often been metered, with users
paying by the megabyte.  This led to some frightening stories on the
Internet of people accidentally ending up with 800-Euro monthly phone
bills for browsing too much.  Needless to say, this has made many
people very cautious about using mobile data.Recently T-Mobile in
Europe offered a flat-rate data service, in which the user pays a
single fixed monthly fee for virtually all the data access they want
(the limit is about a gigabyte a month, which is a lot for a mobile
phone).  Then on November 16, Hutchison Whampoa, the owner of the
"Three" wireless network in Europe and Asia, announced its own
flat-rate plan (more details below).  The Mobile One network in
Singapore just cut its unlimited 3G data price by about 2/3, to around
$13 a month, in order to compete with fixed broadband services.  And
on December 1, the CEO of Vodafone went even further, predicting that
within a few years we'll have flat-rate billing for all mobile
services, including both voice and data.All of this sudden price
activity, especially the announcement by Hutchison, has created a big
stir among mobile-focused commentators in Europe.  For example, here's
a sampling from a mobile discussion board run by Oxford
University:"I'm astonished, frankly.... this is clearly the mobile
internet 'done right.'""It seems like a seminal event!...Now we have
the makings of a new day in our industry.... Has mobile operator
3...discovered the holy grail of the mobile phone industry?""When all
mobile operators realise they have no choice but to give in too, a
torrent of innovation will rush forth I'm sure.""I strongly applaud
this development, and am looking forward to the next stage of
competition in 3G/mobile with open gardens and flat data rate
packages."Are they right?  Has Hutchison revolutionized the mobile
Internet?I don't think so.  Unfortunately, just offering flat-rate
pricing is not enough to make mobile data take off.  This is one area
in which the US mobile phone market has been a leader, believe it or
not.  The top four mobile operators in the US have offered flat-rate
data for years, ranging in price from $15 to $40 a month.  Some of
them even let you use your mobile phone as a modem, something that
Hutchison bans.The result?  Some happy Blackberry and Treo users, but
nothing like a mass migration toward mobile data.  In fact, the most
aggressively priced data service, Sprint's seductively fast 3G
network, is rumored to be producing some of the most disappointing
subscriber growth.Flat-rate pricing is a necessary condition for the
success of mobile data, but it's not enough.  In order for it to take
off, the operators have to do some other things as well.  I'll discuss
those below, but first for context I need to give you an overview of
Hutchison's new offer...Hutchison's X-Series: Open network, all you
can eat dataHutchison Whampoa announced that Three is moving to
flat-rate, all you can eat data with a very open business model.  The
most eye-popping things they promised were unlimited Skype calling
over IP, and unlimited instant messaging.  Those are both heresies to
the operator world.  Hutchison's rhetoric was also heretical:"This
charging structure overturns the traditional telephony model of
charging per minute, per message, per click, per event and per
megabyte." "What is free to use on the net ought in principle to be
free when you use it on the mobile net."Hutchison made its
announcement accompanied by a laundry list of prominent Web brands,
including Google, eBay, Yahoo, and MSN, plus the prominent startups
Sling Media and Orb.  Some of them will be offering
specially-configured services bundled with the phones.  The first
phones offered with Three's new "X-Series" service will be the N73
from Nokia and the w950i from SonyEricsson.The price of the service is
pretty nice.  For five pounds a month (about $10), you get 83 hours of
Skype a month, 10,000 MSN Messenger messages, and a gigabyte of
browsing and e-mail downloads.  That's equivalent to unlimited use for
most people, unless you're downloading YouTube videos all day.The
Skype and MSN components are potentially frightening to operators,
because they compete directly with the voice and SMS services that
provide most operator revenue.  The overt embrace of those services
is, I think, the most radical of Three's changes.For ten pounds a
month ($20), you get everything above plus 80 hours of SlingBox and
Orb service, allowing you to use your mobile to play TV shows, MP3s,
and other files stored at home.Although browsing is unlimited, Three
notes that not all websites work well on mobile browsers (a polite
understatement), and says it blocks access to adult websites.  Also,
you're not allowed to use your phone as a modem for your laptop
computer.What it meansA change in attitude.  I think the most
important impact of Hutchison's announcement is not the service
itself, but the new agenda it sets for mobile operators.  Hutchison
was one of the first operators to deploy 3G, and had been an outspoken
critic of open Internet access on mobile devices.  In 2004, Three COO
Gareth Jones said,  "People don't want open access, that's not what
our customers tell us they want. Anyone in their right mind who tries
to do anything on the Internet with a screen that size has to be
nuts."  Given that background, the vehemence of Hutchison's new
commitment to openness amounts to a declaration of surrender.  I think
that changes the competitive situation for mobile operators in Europe
and Asia.  Hutchison is now competing in terms of who can be the most
open, rather than who can come up with the most clever bundle of
closed services.  Assuming that Three doesn't explode or go bankrupt
in the next six months, it is putting enormous pressure on the other
operators to match or exceed its openness.  That change in dynamic
makes it much more likely that the mobile Internet will be freed to
evolve as quickly as the wired Internet has.Flat rate is not enough. 
But just charging a flat rate isn't enough to make mobile data take
off.  If it were, mobile data would be taking the US by storm.I think
the most important fact about mobile data right now is that we don't
know what users will do with it.  Hutchison was right several years
ago that just blindly transferring the Web to a phone won't please a
lot of people.  Screen size and the lack of a keyboard and mouse make
the mobile browsing experience very different from browsing on a PC. 
Limitations in coverage, especially for 3G, make the thin apps
development model used by web applications much less attractive on a
mobile than it is on a constantly-connected PC.Historically, the
software leaders in one computing platform are almost never successful
in a new one.  When PCs switched from the command-line interface to
graphical interfaces, the established software leaders -- Lotus,
WordPerfect, Ashton-Tate, and so on -- were almost all swept aside. 
When the Internet arose, virtually none of the graphical applications
leaders were able to make themselves leaders in Web apps.  Now that
the mobile Web is appearing, it is naive and foolish to think that the
desktop Internet leaders will automatically be the leaders in this new
space.  They don't understand it, and their existing desktop-based
businesses are a hindrance to learning.What needs to be moved to
mobile networks isn't just the Web's applications or price structure,
it's the Web's open business model.  We need to run a huge number of
experiments in order to figure out what applications users will want
in mobile data.  No single company is capable of doing all that work
on its own.  The only way to make the experiments happen is to set up
a vibrant, chaotic ecosystem in which thousands of developers will be
free to rapidly try and fail at a huge number of things.  It was that
sort of random experimentation that permitted leaders like eBay,
Amazon, and Google to emerge on the wired Internet while companies
like RealNames, AltaVista, and Chemdex were left behind.Five steps to
make mobile data a successIn addition to offering flat-rate data, here
are the other steps a mobile operator must take in order to make that
mobile data ecosystem work:1. Provide a consistent architecture that
works offline.  This is probably the most critical need.  Web
applications depend on having a constant connection between the user's
computer and the Internet.  That's not practical for the mobile Web. 
Even in countries with heavy 2G coverage, there are lots of gaps in
the 3G network, and will be for many years.  Mobile Web apps need to
work like RIM's e-mail client, which stores both the program itself
and the user's data locally and then sends the data to the network
when a connection is available.  That means just bundling a browser is
not enough.  The phones will also need software installed on-device
that can manage applications and data when the user is offline.  That
could be an operating system like Windows Mobile or Palm or Symbian,
it could be an applications layer like Adobe Apollo or Java, or it
could be other software that the web community will create if given
the chance.  This software layer will need to be consistent across
phones, just as HTML is consistent across all browsers.Three has
already failed this test in the first two phones it picked for
X-Series.  The Nokia N73 runs Symbian OS with Nokis'a S60 software on
top of it.  The SonyEricsson w950i runs Symbian OS with its UIQ
software on top, which is not compatible with S60 software.  Guess
what – Three just announced that the N73 is available now, but
that the w950i is indefinitely delayed.  Three didn't give the reason,
but I'm not surprised, since all of the client software has to be
rewritten to run on the SonyEricsson handset.I don't think any
operator is capable of setting a platform standard on its own, but
they should be encouraging the rapid evolution of a standard, by
making their phones open to new software (just as open as the PC is),
by offering to help deploy new tools, and by providing free testing to
make sure they work on the wireless network.2. Kill security
certificates.  The line between websites and applications is blurring,
as Web 2.0 architectures allow much more processing to be done on the
client device rather than a server someplace in Idaho.  Google is
pretty much a traditional website, but Google Maps is a hybrid, and
Skype is a full PC application that talks to the Web.  In the future
it will be impossible for a user to tell exactly where an application
ends and the Internet begins.But today the operators treat websites
and applications completely differently.  The new flat-rate data plans
let you browse just about any website you want.  But operators are
starting to insist that applications obtain a security certificate
before they can be installed.  The certification process is slow,
inconvenient, and unreasonably expensive for small software companies
and those that create a lot of applications.  Since small software
companies are the most innovative, this has an enormous chilling
effect on mobile innovation.This approach is also completely
inconsistent with the way the Web works.  Can you picture a website
paying for certification before it can run on your browser?  How many
sites would bother?  If the operators insist on certificates, they
will make the mobile Web a small and uninteresting subset of the real
Web, permanently.  Certificates have to go.3. Unlock the user's data. 
This is the other security-related problem area.  Many operators make
it very difficult for an application to access the user's data stored
on the device, such as the address book, the dialer, and the user's
current location.  But many of the most interesting new mobile
applications need to be able to work with this information.  Users
should be informed when they give an application access to this
information, but it should be very easy for them to say yes.  Like the
previous point, this one is scary to the operators, because they worry
that a rogue application could make thousands of phone calls or send
huge numbers of premium messages, building up a huge bill.Although
that's a legitimate fear, strangling mobile data is a self-defeating
solution.  The operators will need to adopt the same security model
used on the Web -- let the user do what they want, and defend the
device via security software.This isn't as dangerous as the operators
fear it will be.  We've used the same model for more than a decade on
the fixed line phone and data networks, and millions of fully open
Palm OS, Symbian, and Windows Mobile devices are on wireless networks
today.  Despite this, no one has taken down either the wired or
wireless networks. 4. Make it easy to discover new content and
services.  The mobile data ecosystem will evolve faster if it's easy
for users to find new services and applications.  Today the content
discovery tools and software stores on mobile devices, if they are
installed at all, are often buried under several layers of icons, or
are very hard to use.  We need the mobile equivalent of an Amazon.com
-- an online content store that's easy to find, browse and search, and
that makes suggestions to you based on what you've used in the past. 
5.  Get ready to go to a flat rate for everything.  Vodafone's comment
shows that they understand this: the logical outcome of putting the
open web on a mobile device is that voice and data merge under a
single flat fee.  If a Skype call is free, then eventually all calls
need to be free, or the users will just switch everything to Skype. 
Same thing for SMS messages once they're directly in conflict with
instant messaging.  The operators' old financial model won't evaporate
overnight, but it's now officially dying.  And it's in Three's
interest to move to the new model as quickly as possible -- the sooner
it adopts the new model, the sooner it can cannibalize the customers
of other operators.  I think the race is now on for full flat-rate
mobile pricing in Europe.  Because the operators there are more
competitive than the ones in the US, I think it's very possible that
Europe's pricing evolution will move faster than in the US.  But the
same principle applies everywhere in the world: the operator that
moves to the new model fastest stands to gain the most customers.Let's
hear it for desperate operatorsSome people have been asking why Three
chose to make such a radical change.  It may be genuine vision, or it
may just be desperation.  Press reports say that Hutchison had been
hoping to spin out the Three networks, but had to cancel the plans
because Three is not making money.  If that's the case, Hutchison may
have decided that it might as well take a chance on aggressive new
pricing.Unfortunately, if Three is counting on the new pricing alone
to bail it out, then I think it'll be disappointed.  It needs to take
all the steps I've outlined above.  But I like the idea of desperate
operators being willing to experiment.  If we get enough of them
desperate, someone will probably eventually make all the right
changes.  I like to believe it's just a matter of time.





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Testing a new template



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Phones = cars



"Phones are the new cars.  The car's history suggests that the phone's
future is about divergence, not convergence."  -- The Economist,
December 2, 2006 It looks like the world is finally starting to
understand that the future of mobile data is about segmentation rather
than finding a single killer app.  Because different people want to do
different things, it's impossible to make a single mobile device that
pleases everyone -- just as you can't make a single automobile that's
simultaneously ideal for sports car fans, SUV drivers, and delivery
vans.This is the norm for most product categories.  As a new market
matures, it divides into segments.  I'm not sure why so many people
expected the mobile market to converge into a single design.  Maybe we
were all expecting mobiles to develop the way PCs did.  But PCs are
starting to look more and more like the exception rather than the
rule.  For most products, divergence rather than convergence is the
dominant reality.Getting this message across to the mainstream press
has taken more than four years.  I first started talking about the car
market as an analogy for mobile data in mid-2002.  For the record,
here's a slide I created for PalmSource's main strategy presentation
that year:I'd like to believe that the Economist picked up the idea
from me, but it's far more likely that they cooked it up on their own,
since it's pretty obvious once you've talked to enough mobile data
users. Once you start thinking about segments in the mobile device
market, the next critical question is what the main segments are.  The
Economist didn't have much insight here.  Instead, their article was a
very competent overview of all the traditional possibilities -- the
"remote control for your life," the "life recorder" (personal video
archive), e-wallet, and so on. The idea they covered that I'm most
skeptical about is that in the future we'll all wear glasses on which
information about the things we look at will be projected.  Living in
a nation where more than million people a year pay to have their eyes
cut open with a knife and blasted with a laser, all so they won't have
to wear glasses, I really doubt that we're all going to start to wear
glasses just so we can see hypertext links projected against the walls
of restaurants.To cull the huge list of products that could happen
down to a list of things that are more likely to happen, you need to
look at users' psychology and what problems they are trying to solve
in their lives.  I've taken a shot at doing that sort of segmentation
in previous posts, and I think they three main segments are mobile
entertainment, mobile communication, and mobile information
management.  You can read the details here.Who knows, maybe that's
what the Economist will be writing about in four more years.  ;-)  





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Palm gets its OS back



"Palm Signs Perpetual License for Palm OS Garnet Source Code" -- Palm
press release Now the circle is complete.Way back in the days before
the Internet bubble, Palm was a single integrated company run by its
founders, making its own hardware and OS.Today, Palm is once again a
single company, run by its founders, with its own hardware and OS.If
it weren't for Eric Benhamou being on Palm's Board of Directors, you
could almost pretend the last eight years didn't happen.The details of
the license agreement, explained in an admirably detailed Q&A posted
by Access, raise some interesting possibilities.  Here's what I read
into them (and this is just my speculation; I don't have any inside
information):--Palm OS on Windows?  Most important, Palm has the right
to put Palm OS Garnet on any other operating system.  As others have
pointed out, that means they could create a new Linux-based device and
run the Palm OS applications base on it.  I believe they can also put
Palm OS Garnet on Windows Mobile, which is going to turn the stomachs
of many Palm OS enthusiasts but is extremely interesting to me.Palm
doesn't have a Palm OS-compatible 3G phone today for the GSM
countries.  In those countries, it can offer only Windows Mobile.  But
Palm can now theoretically offer Palm OS on top of its Windows
devices.  There are drawbacks -- the most prominent being that Palm
uses 240x240 screens on its Windows Mobile devices.  So we'd need new
hardware, or some sort of awkward resolution hack.  But I'll bet that
Palm can still do that faster than it can rewrite Palm OS itself to
run on 3G GSM.I don't know what Microsoft would say about that. 
Probably something unhappy; they wouldn't like being treated as
plumbing for someone else's OS.Palm could also do Palm OS on Symbian,
which might be less unappetizing than you'd expect.  I think you'd
completely hide the underlying Symbian OS, using it just as plumbing
and phone management while you let Palm OS handle the UI and
applications layer.The key task for Palm will be finding a way to get
all the basic phone software support for as little cost as possible,
so they can concentrate on the value-added user functionality.  Palm
can now play the field and choose whichever plumbing it likes best. 
It's a pretty liberating thought to me, and I bet it feels that way to
Palm as well.--Is it a full divorce?  Palm and Access pointedly didn't
say if Palm will use the new Access Linux Platform.  It's still
possible they might do it, but it's also possible that this agreement
is the final divorce settlement between the two companies.--Garnet has
legs.  I have a deep sentimental attachment to the Palm OS Garnet code
base.  The OS has its limitations, but for basic applications you can
get a lot done with very little programming effort, especially
compared to a nightmare case like writing native Symbian apps.  Palm
will apparently now start adding new features to Garnet, which is
great (although it does create the risk of fragmenting the code
base).We now have three companies putting various levels of investment
into Palm OS Garnet: Palm itself, Access, and StyleTap.  An
interesting situation for a dead, obsolete OS. --Will Access make Palm
OS Garnet into a layer?  Now that Palm's using Palm OS Garnet as a
software layer in top of other things, will Access license other
companies to do the same?  I have seen no signs that they will, but I
think a Palm apps layer could be a lot more useful on mobile devices
than Java has been.  I argued for this for years within PalmSource,
and I still think it's a good idea.Anyway, I'm sure the old-time Palm
engineers are glad to have their code base back, and I'll be very
interested to see what they do with it. 





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Trouble with a 3G smartphone
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Impact of the Apple iPhone

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"Software as a service" misses the point
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We need a new mobile platform
Symbian unloads UIQ
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blog-admin\47\76\n\74a class\75\47quickedit\47
expr:href\75\47data:widget.quickEditUrl\47
expr:onclick\75\47\46quot;return
_WidgetManager._PopupConfig(document.getElementById(\\\46quot;\46quot;
+       data:widget.instanceId + \46quot;\\\46quot;));\46quot;\47
expr:target\75\47\46quot;config\46quot; + data:widget.instanceId\47
expr:title\75\47data:edit-link\47\76\n\74img alt\75\47\47
height\75\04718\47
src\75\47http://img1.blogblog.com/img/icon18_wrench_allbkg.png\47
width\75\04718\47/\76\n\74/a\76\n\74/span\76\n\74/span\76\n\74div
class\75\47clear\47\76\74/div\076'}, 'all-head-content': {'varName':
'page', 'template':
'\74data:blog.latencyHeadScript\76\74/data:blog.latencyHeadScript\76\n\74meta
expr:content\75\47\46quot;text/html; charset\75\46quot; +
data:page.encoding\47 http-equiv\75\47Content-Type\47/\76\n\74meta
content\75\47true\47
name\75\47MSSmartTagsPreventParsing\47/\76\n\74meta
content\75\47blogger\47 name\75\47generator\47/\76\n\74link
href\75\47http://www.blogger.com/favicon.ico\47 rel\75\47icon\47
type\75\47image/vnd.microsoft.icon\47/\76\n\74link
expr:href\75\47data:blog.url\47
rel\75\47canonical\47/\76\n\74data:blog.feedLinks\76\74/data:blog.feedLinks\76\n\74data:blog.meTag\76\74/data:blog.meTag\76\n\74data:blog.openIdOpTag\76\74/data:blog.openIdOpTag\076'}});
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_TextView', new _WidgetInfo('Text2',
'footer',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('Text2'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_TextView', new _WidgetInfo('Text1',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('Text1'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML3',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML3'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_ProfileView', new
_WidgetInfo('Profile1', 'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template':
'\74b:if cond\75\47data:title !\75
\46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74b:if cond\75\47data:team \75\75
\46quot;true\46quot;\47\76\n\74ul\76\n\74b:loop
values\75\47data:authors\47 var\75\47i\47\76\n\74li\76\74a
expr:href\75\47data:i.userUrl\47\76\74data:i.display-name\76\74/data:i.display-name\76\74/a\76\74/li\76\n\74/b:loop\76\n\74/ul\76\n\74b:else\76\74/b:else\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:photo.url !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74a
expr:href\75\47data:userUrl\47\76\74img class\75\47profile-img\47
expr:alt\75\47data:photo.alt\47 expr:height\75\47data:photo.height\47
expr:src\75\47data:photo.url\47
expr:width\75\47data:photo.width\47/\76\74/a\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74dl
class\75\47profile-datablock\47\76\n\74dt
class\75\47profile-data\47\76\74/dt\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:showlocation \75\75 \46quot;true\46quot;\47\76\n\74dd
class\75\47profile-data\47\76\74data:location\76\74/data:location\76\74/dd\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:aboutme !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\74dd
class\75\47profile-textblock\47\76\74data:aboutme\76\74/data:aboutme\76\74/dd\76\74/b:if\76\n\74/dl\76\n\74a
class\75\47profile-link\47
expr:href\75\47data:userUrl\47\76\74data:viewProfileMsg\76\74/data:viewProfileMsg\76\74/a\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/div\076'}},
document.getElementById('Profile1'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_TextView', new _WidgetInfo('Text3',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('Text3'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_BlogArchiveView', new
_WidgetInfo('BlogArchive1', 'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '',
'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title\47\76\n\74h2\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74div
id\75\47ArchiveList\47\76\n\74div expr:id\75\47data:widget.instanceId
+ \46quot;_ArchiveList\46quot;\47\76\n\74b:if cond\75\47data:style
\75\75 \46quot;HIERARCHY\46quot;\47\76\n\74b:include data\75\47data\47
name\75\47interval\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:style \75\75 \46quot;FLAT\46quot;\47\76\n\74b:include
data\75\47data\47
name\75\47flat\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:style \75\75 \46quot;MENU\46quot;\47\76\n\74b:include
data\75\47data\47
name\75\47menu\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74/div\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/div\076'}, 'flat':
{'varName': 'data', 'template': '\74ul\76\n\74b:loop
values\75\47data:data\47 var\75\47i\47\76\n\74li
class\75\47archivedate\47\76\n\74a
expr:href\75\47data:i.url\47\76\74data:i.name\76\74/data:i.name\76\74/a\76
(\74data:i.post-count\76\74/data:i.post-count\76)\n     
\74/li\76\n\74/b:loop\76\n\74/ul\076'}, 'menu': {'varName': 'data',
'template': '\74select expr:id\75\47data:widget.instanceId +
\46quot;_ArchiveMenu\46quot;\47\76\n\74option
value\75\47\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/option\76\n\74b:loop
values\75\47data:data\47 var\75\47i\47\76\n\74option
expr:value\75\47data:i.url\47\76\74data:i.name\76\74/data:i.name\76
(\74data:i.post-count\76\74/data:i.post-count\76)\74/option\76\n\74/b:loop\76\n\74/select\076'},
'interval': {'varName': 'intervalData', 'template': '\74b:loop
values\75\47data:intervalData\47 var\75\47i\47\76\n\74ul\76\n\74li
expr:class\75\47\46quot;archivedate \46quot; +
data:i.expclass\47\76\n\74b:include data\75\47i\47
name\75\47toggle\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74a
class\75\47post-count-link\47
expr:href\75\47data:i.url\47\76\74data:i.name\76\74/data:i.name\76\74/a\76\n\74span
class\75\47post-count\47
dir\75\47ltr\47\76(\74data:i.post-count\76\74/data:i.post-count\76)\74/span\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:i.data\47\76\n\74b:include data\75\47i.data\47
name\75\47interval\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:i.posts\47\76\n\74b:include data\75\47i.posts\47
name\75\47posts\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74/li\76\n\74/ul\76\n\74/b:loop\076'},
'toggle': {'varName': 'interval', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:interval.toggleId\47\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:interval.expclass \75\75
\46quot;expanded\46quot;\47\76\n\74a class\75\47toggle\47
href\75\47javascript:void(0)\47\76\n\74span class\75\47zippy
toggle-open\47\76\46#9660;\46#160;\74/span\76\n\74/a\76\n\74b:else\76\74/b:else\76\n\74a
class\75\47toggle\47 href\75\47javascript:void(0)\47\76\n\74span
class\75\47zippy\47\76\n\74b:if cond\75\47data:blog.languageDirection
\75\75 \46quot;rtl\46quot;\47\76\n          \46#9668;\46#160;\n       
\74b:else\76\74/b:else\76\n          \46#9658;\46#160;\n       
\74/b:if\76\n\74/span\76\n\74/a\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74/b:if\076'},
'posts': {'varName': 'posts', 'template': '\74ul
class\75\47posts\47\76\n\74b:loop values\75\47data:posts\47
var\75\47i\47\76\n\74li\76\74a
expr:href\75\47data:i.url\47\76\74data:i.title\76\74/data:i.title\76\74/a\76\74/li\76\n\74/b:loop\76\n\74/ul\076'}},
document.getElementById('BlogArchive1'), {'languageDirection': 'ltr'},
'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML1',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML1'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML9',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML9'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML5',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML5'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML2',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML2'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML4',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML4'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML8',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML8'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML6',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML6'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_TextView', new _WidgetInfo('Text4',
'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('Text4'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_AdSenseView', new
_WidgetInfo('AdSense1', 'sidebar',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template':
'\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:adCode\76\74/data:adCode\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\76\n\74/div\076'}},
document.getElementById('AdSense1'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML7',
'header',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2
class\75\47title\47\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74data:content\76\74/data:content\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('HTML7'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_ImageView', new _WidgetInfo('Image1',
'header',{'main': {'varName': '', 'template': '\74b:if
cond\75\47data:title !\75
\46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74h2\76\74data:title\76\74/data:title\76\74/h2\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74div
class\75\47widget-content\47\76\n\74b:if cond\75\47data:link !\75
\46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74a expr:href\75\47data:link\47\76\n\74img
expr:alt\75\47data:title\47 expr:height\75\47data:height\47
expr:id\75\47data:widget.instanceId + \46quot;_img\46quot;\47
expr:src\75\47data:sourceUrl\47
expr:width\75\47data:width\47/\76\n\74/a\76\n\74b:else\76\74/b:else\76\n\74img
expr:alt\75\47data:title\47 expr:height\75\47data:height\47
expr:id\75\47data:widget.instanceId + \46quot;_img\46quot;\47
expr:src\75\47data:sourceUrl\47
expr:width\75\47data:width\47/\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74br/\76\n\74b:if
cond\75\47data:caption !\75 \46quot;\46quot;\47\76\n\74span
class\75\47caption\47\76\74data:caption\76\74/data:caption\76\74/span\76\n\74/b:if\76\n\74/div\76\n\74b:include
name\75\47quickedit\47\76\74/b:include\076'}},
document.getElementById('Image1'), {'resize': false},
'displayModeFull'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HeaderView', new
_WidgetInfo('Header1', 'header'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_NavbarView', new
_WidgetInfo('Navbar1', 'navbar'));
_WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_BlogView', new _WidgetInfo('Blog1',
'main'));

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